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Dan Goodman's Blog

Web Address: http://www.zcommunications.org/zspace/dangoodman
Bio: I'm a researcher in theoretical neuroscience with political interests in anarchism, civil liberties, capitalism, Islamophobia and irrational responses to terrorism. If you want to find out more, y... (More)

All Goodman Blogs

How does an economic crisis actually work?

By Dan Goodman at Mar 24, 2009


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This is a very naive thing to say, but I'm not sure exactly how an economic crisis works. I mean, if things were working OK beforehand, why do they stop working? People are in principle capable of doing the same work as before, etc. So what changes? Is there anything real behind it or is it entirely an artifact of the way money, capital, etc. work? Is this explained anywhere?

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Re: How does an economic crisis actually work?

By Petersen, Leif at Mar 24, 2009 11:12 AM

First thing to understand is that this crisis was created exclusively by the banks. They were extremely agressive in offering loans, and that exposed them to huge losses when the housing market went down.

Had the banks not inflated the housing bubble, the price fluctuations on houses would have been much smaller, and the banking sector would not have sustained major losses.

When banks collapse, the government steps in to guard the depositors' money and to oversee an orderly closing down of the operation. Often parts of the bank, and it's customer portfolio, is sold to other banks.

This time several huge banks collapsed at once, and the government was afraid that  the entire banking system would fail. This would have devastating effects on the real economy, and on investors.

So the government decided to bail-out the banks. By lowering the interest rates, lending them money from the central bank, buying bank shares, buying bad bank debt . Very opaque, expensive and risky steps.

While this saves the big banks from going bankrupt, it adds to the already enormous government debt. This debt has to be repaid through raising taxes, cutting spending - or simply printing money and cancelling government debt with it. So far the Obama administration has chosen the third option - which is a brilliant idea as long as inflation doesn't result from it.

The "real economy" was hit by the banks tightening credit to business and individuals. Furthermore fortunes have been lost as the stock market tumbled, which caused bankruptcies, lost jobs and a sharp fall in consumption - causing even more bankrupcies.

The  evil spiral has to end before the economy recovers. The surviving banks will start making profits again, government will stimulate consumption and investments, cost cutting and a cheap dollar will lead to more competitive American businesses.

The dark horse is the already huge government debt. This hampers government's role in pulling the economic recovery, and there is a significant risk of state bankrupcy or hyperinflation, which would mean a chaotic business environment.

In the above I blamed the banks for simplicity. The responsibility must of course be shared by politicians, lobbyists and economists that advocated and implemented bank deregulation.

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Re:

By Goodman, Dan at Mar 24, 2009 17:11 PM

Thanks Peter, Brian and Leif.

I think I understand (well, to some extent) how it is that the crisis happens from the point of view of the money (basically, pyramid scheme as Peter said). But what really confuses me is, why does this affect the 'real world'? I mean, if you forgot about the money for a moment, people could keep on doing the same work and getting the same products, and it seems like there would be no problem at all. So somehow the crisis in the number world translates into a crisis in the real world. Is there some meaning to how that happens? The connection between the money/number world and the real world has always baffled me. I suspect things like inflation and currency speculation are related to it too, but I have a really hard time getting my head around it.

Brian, about the Argentinian workers taking over their work places: wasn't there something in the US recently too? Some factory was taken over by its workers. Did that work out? I can't remember what it was called now.

Leif: your explanation about the banks tightening credit gets me somewhere, but it seems like you'd expect a very slow series of knock on effects from that rather than the fairly quick effect we've actually seen. Or maybe I'm way off about that, maybe it has been a slow series of effects that are getting bigger and bigger. Or maybe it's that people see what is happening and so you don't have to wait for the knock on effects you see them immediately?

Here's a related question: how does international economic stuff come into it? Is part of the problem that, for example, the US is consuming things that have more value (in some sense) than what it is producing? In other words, if things made sense the US (and other rich nations) would be consuming less and other countries who produce more would be consuming more?

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Re: Re:

By Small, Brian at Mar 25, 2009 02:52 AM

Dan, I don't remember hearing about U.S. Workers taking over their workplace. Unless it was the door factory in Chicago during the Presidential Election. I think Obama even supported them.  I wonder how it is going now. There was a hotel here in Japan that workers kept open, I think it was conncected to Lehman Brothers or AIG.  Do workers have access to the inputs, the places they depend on for materials, and then access to clients? If the owners just bail with the money - you can't keep producing if you can't get credit with your suppliers... Then the clients have to trust you for redress if there's a problem... You can see how it might get pretty involved for workeres iif all this is run by and old boys network upstream and downstream..

 Democray now just had a labor lawyer and author on about how the ecnomic cirisis was caused by allowing usury, not just deregulating. I think it helps get a grasp of what the problems are. I have to listen to (or read) it again..

http://www.democracynow.org/2009/3/24/thomas_geoghegan_on_infinite_debt_how

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Re: Re: Re:

By Goodman, Dan at Mar 25, 2009 14:46 PM

Ah yes, that's the factory I was thinking of. Must look it up and see how that panned out in the end.

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Re: Re: Re: Re:

By Small, Brian at Mar 26, 2009 07:14 AM

http://www.henrygeorge.org/pchp22.htm

I stumbled on this which seemed interesting for thinking about the crisis. 1879 but speculation was causing recessions...

The Root Cause of Recessions

I found the link following up Martin Luther King's thoughts on 'Guaranteed Income.' I hope you find and share some good stuff about the door factory.. Take over. I'd love to see Naomi Klein's documentary "The Take"

 

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By Ward, Peter at Mar 23, 2009 22:20 PM

Hi Dan,

I would refer you to David Harvey's blog (http://davidharvey.org/) for some of the most intelligable analysis I've come across.

Basically, the consensus seems to be, it's that the financialization of the economy,--speculative investing, borrowing in leu of growth, insuring highrisk loans and so on--a process started in the 70s, had (predictably) the same defect as a pyrimid scheme or any other attempt to make money out of nothing. Growth won't be exponential forever and eventually more people will try to cash out than cash in.

If it all this seems confusing it's probably because economics mainly exists to provide ideological cover for a grotesquely injust and irresponsable economic arrangement and not to help people understand what's really going on. As an alternative, the business press (WSJ etc) can be a source of fact-based reporting because their patrons need to know what's really happening in the world not play games with elegant statistical models that have about as much scientific value as astrology.

Hope this helps,

Peter

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Re:

By Small, Brian at Mar 24, 2009 04:14 AM

Dean Baker and Mark Weisbrot's articles usually help me understand economics, their stuff on Znet and then over at cepr.net. Walden Bello usually makes me feel like I'm starting to understand the Global economy a bit better too.

But like you say people are still capable of doing the same things. Naomi Klein did some work with the people in Argentina that just re-occupied their hotels, suit factories etc and kept them running after the owners abandoned them...

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