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Iraq: When Should US Troops Leave?

Monday, February 04, 2008

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[This is the footnoted version of a presentation given to the Bloomfield/Glen Ridge Caucus organized by Bloomfield and Glen Ridge Peace Action, February 2, 2008]

Everyone who isn't a total flunky of the Bush administration knows that the war in Iraq has been based on lies.

In fact, according to a recent study by the Center for Public Integrity and the Fund for Independence in Journalism, in the two years following 9-11 top administration officials told 935 lies about the national security threat posed by Iraq.¹

But many people of good will wonder: even if the war was the result of lies, even if the US invasion was unjust and illegal, what do we do now? Does the "Pottery Barn rule" so often mentioned by Colin Powell -- we broke it, we own it -- apply. And if we own it, what do we do with it?

Well, in fact the Pottery Barn denies it has such a rule, but in any case the so-called Pottery Barn rule has no moral standing. The colonial powers ravaged Africa: but that didn't give them the right to own it and decide its future. The Soviet Union invaded Hungary and Czechoslovakia, but this didn't give them right to decide the fate of those countries.

As Noam Chomsky has noted, an invader has no rights, only obligations.² The only people with rights in Iraq are the Iraqi people. What do they think should happen? This ought to be at least the starting point for our inquiry.

Now the problem of course is that it's not so easy to ascertain the views of Iraqis -- after all, Iraq today is a non-functioning society, in the midst of massive violence, with more than one out of every seven Iraqis displaced -- either within the country or as a refugee. Town meetings are not easily organized in Iraq. Participatory democracy doesn’t flourish amidst car-bombs and air-strikes.

Nevertheless, we do have some indication of what Iraqis think. For example, focus groups of Iraqis were organized for the U.S. military this past November. According to a report in the Washington Post, which was able to obtain a summary of the results,

"Iraqis of all sectarian and ethnic groups believe that the U.S. military invasion is the primary root of the violent differences among them, and see the departure of 'occupying forces' as the key to national reconciliation...."³

Pentagon analysts said they thought this was good news because it indicated that Iraqis held some "shared beliefs" that might eventually allow them to surmount the divisions that have led to a civil war. It is indeed good news for Iraqis, but needless to say it's not much of an endorsement of the US military presence.

We don't have many details of the focus group findings, but there have been a variety of public opinion polls that have been carried out in Iraq -- by different polling companies -- that are consistent with one another and with the US military focus group results.

If you look at the tables I distributed, you'll see (in Table 1) that as of the latest poll in August 2007, 47 percent of Iraqis want US forces to leave immediately⁴; more than half of the Arab population -- that is, the Sunni Arabs and the Shia Arabs, excluding the Kurds -- supports immediate withdrawal,⁵ and the Kurds of course are the one group who do not have US troops in their region. The sentiment in favor of withdrawal is strongest in Anbar province, where US officials are so proud of their new relationship with some Sunni tribes.⁶ Table 2 shows that 79 percent of the population, including 84 percent of the Shiite Arabs and 98 percent of the Sunni Arabs, oppose the presence of "coalition" forces in Iraq.

Table 1: Iraqi Public Opinion, August 2007

How long do you think US and other coalition forces should remain in Iraq? They should:

	8/24/2007				3/5/2007				11/22/2005
	All	Sunni	Shiite	Kurd	All	Sunni	Shiite	Kurd	All
Leave now	47	72	44	8	35	55	28	11	26
Remain until security is restored	34	27	38	36	38	41	39	28	31
Remain until the Iraqi government is stronger†	10	*	10	28	14	3	18	28	19
Remain until the Iraqi security forces can operate independently	7	1	6	18	11	1	13	24	16
Remain longer, but leave eventually	2	0	1	8	2	*	2	7	3
Never leave	*	0	*	2	1	0	*	2	1
No opinion	*	*	*	1	*	0	*	*	4

* Less than 0.5 percent.
† In 2005, "Remain until the Iraqi government elected in December is in place"

Source: ABC NEWS/BBC/NHK POLL – Iraq: Where Things Stand, Embargoed For Release After 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2007, Iraqis’ Own Surge Assessment: Few See Security Gains, Question 21, pp. 25-26, http://abcnews.go.com/images/US/1043a1IraqWhereThingsStand.pdf

Table 2: Iraqi Public Opinion, August 2007

Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq?

	--------Support--------			---------Oppose--------			No
	NET	Strongly	Somewhat	NET	Somewhat	Strongly	opin.
8/24/2007	21	5	16	79	26	53	*
Sunni	2	*	1	98	25	73	0
Shiite	16	2	15	84	30	54	0
Kurdish	70	21	48	29	20	9	1
3/5/2007	22	6	16	78	32	46	*
Sunni	3	*	3	97	29	68	0
Shiite	17	2	15	83	39	44	0
Kurdish	75	28	47	25	21	4	*
11/22/2005	32	13	19	65	21	44	3
2/28/2004	39	13	26	51	20	31	10

* Less than 0.5 percent.

Source: ABC NEWS/BBC/NHK POLL – Iraq: Where Things Stand, Embargoed For Release After 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2007, Iraqis’ Own Surge Assessment: Few See Security Gains, Question 19, pp. 24-25, http://abcnews.go.com/images/US/1043a1IraqWhereThingsStand.pdf

Because these data are from August, the fraction saying that the US surge increased security has probably gone up from the 12-18 percent shown in Table 3. In December deaths were down -- but one of the reasons for that is that huge swaths of Baghdad have undergone ethnic cleansing -- perhaps 700,000 people have fled or been driven out of the capital⁷ -- so there simply aren't as many potential victims. In January deaths started upwards again, both for Iraqi civilians and US soldiers, but in any case they are lower than in mid-2007. But look at item "c" of table 3, which poses the crucial question: What has the impact of the surge been on the conditions for political dialogue in Iraq. 10 percent think the surge has improved things, 70 percent think it's made thinks worse. And this is true across the ethnic and sectarian divide.

Table 3: Iraqi Public Opinion, August 2007

As you may know, the United States has increased the number of its forces in Baghdad and surrounding provinces in the past six months. For each item I read, please tell me if you think this increase in US forces has made it better, made it worse, or had no effect.

Do you think this increase in US forces has made [read category] better, worse, or had no effect?

8/24/2007	Better	Worse	Had no effect	No opinion

a. Security in areas where these forces have been sent	18	70	11	*
Sunni	6	89	6	0
Shiite	22	66	11	*
Kurdish	33	43	23	1
b. Security in other areas of Iraq	12	68	20	*
Sunni	5	86	9	0
Shiite	13	64	23	*
Kurdish	22	48	28	2
c. Conditions for political dialogue in Iraq	10	70	20	*
Sunni	1	85	14	0
Shiite	12	66	22	*
Kurdish	20	55	24	1
d. The ability of the Iraqi government to carry out its work.	12	65	22	*
Sunni	2	79	19	0
Shiite	16	63	21	0
Kurdish	22	47	30	1
e. The pace of reconstruction in Iraq	9	67	24	*
Sunni	3	78	19	0
Shiite	11	66	23	0
Kurdish	11	52	37	1
f. The pace of economic development in Iraq	6	67	26	*
Sunni	3	79	18	*
Shiite	9	67	24	*
Kurdish	5	49	45	1

* Less than 0.5 percent.
Source: ABC NEWS/BBC/NHK POLL – Iraq: Where Things Stand, Embargoed For Release After 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2007, Iraqis’ Own Surge Assessment: Few See Security Gains, Question 20, p. 25, http://abcnews.go.com/images/US/1043a1IraqWhereThingsStand.pdf

Table 4 shows that Iraqis are four times as likely to think that US forces make security worse than that they make it better, and Table 5 indicates that 57 percent of Iraqis, including 93 percent of Sunni Arabs and half of the Shia Arabs, think that attacks on coalition forces are acceptable, while substantial majorities of all groups oppose attacks on Iraqi government forces. As Table 6 shows, Iraqis have much more confidence in the Iraqi Army, the police, and even militias than they do in the US and British occupation forces.

Table 4: Iraqi Public Opinion, August 2007
Overall, do you think the presence of US forces in Iraq is making security in our country better, worse, or having no effect on the situation?
	Better	Worse	No effect	No opinion
8/24/2007	18	72	9	*
Sunni	2	95	3	0
Shiite	17	73	10	0
Kurdish	53	28	17	2
3/5/2007	21	69	10	*
Sunni	2	94	4	0
Shiite	19	71	10	*
Kurdish	67	15	18	0
* Less than 0.5 percent.
Source: ABC NEWS/BBC/NHK POLL – Iraq: Where Things Stand, Embargoed For Release After 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2007, Iraqis’ Own Surge Assessment: Few See Security Gains, Question 22, p. 26, http://abcnews.go.com/images/US/1043a1IraqWhereThingsStand.pdf

Table 5: Iraqi Public Opinion, August 2007
Thinking about the political action of other people, do you find each of these items to be acceptable or not acceptable?
a. Attacks on coalition forces	Accept-	Not	No
	able	acceptable	opinion
8/24/2007	57	43	*
Sunni	93	7	*
Shiite	50	50	0
Kurdish	5	94	1
3/5/2007	51	49	*
Sunni	94	6	0
Shiite	35	65	*
Kurdish	7	93	0
2/28/2004	17	78	5
b. Attacks on Iraqi government forces	Accept-	Not	No
	able	acceptable	opin.
8/24/2007	7	93	*
Sunni	18	82	0
Shiite	2	98	*
Kurdish	2	97	1
3/5/2007	12	88	0
Sunni	34	66	0
Shiite	1	99	0
Kurdish	1	99	0
* Less than 0.5 percent.
Source: ABC NEWS/BBC/NHK POLL – Iraq: Where Things Stand, Embargoed For Release After 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2007, Iraqis’ Own Surge Assessment: Few See Security Gains, Question 23, pp. 26-27, http://abcnews.go.com/images/US/1043a1IraqWhereThingsStand.pdf

Table 6: Iraqi Public Opinion, August 2007
I am going to name a number of organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a great deal of confidence, quite a lot of confidence, not very much confidence, or none at all...

	-------Confident--------			---Not confident---			No
	Net	Great deal	A lot	Net	Not much	None	Opinion
The Iraqi Army
8/24/2007	67	23	43	33	21	12	0
Sunni	34	7	27	66	34	32	0
Shiite	84	29	54	16	15	1	0
Kurdish	80	38	43	20	16	4	0
The Police
8/24/2007	69	33	36	31	17	15	0
Sunni	37	9	28	63	26	37	0
Shiite	84	43	40	16	12	4	0
Kurdish	86	47	39	14	11	3	0
US & UK Occupation Forces
8/24/2007	14	4	11	86	27	58	0
Sunni	1	*	1	99	19	79	0
Shiite	9	1	8	91	32	59	0
Kurdish	53	18	34	47	30	17	0
3/5/2007	18	6	12	82	30	52	*
Sunni	3	0	3	97	18	80	0
Shiite	12	3	9	88	42	46	0
Kurdish	67	26	41	33	24	9	*
11/22/2005	18	7	11	78	23	55	5
2/28/2004	25	8	17	66	23	43	8
11/15/2003	19	7	12	71	20	52	9
Local Leaders in Your Community
8/24/2007	46	11	36	53	34	20	*
Sunni	20	1	19	80	41	39	0
Shiite	56	11	46	43	33	10	*
Kurdish	72	30	42	28	19	9	*
National Government of Iraq
8/24/2007	39	11	28	61	31	30	0
Sunni	4	1	3	96	32	64	0
Shiite	58	17	41	42	30	12	0
Kurdish	54	13	41	46	31	15	0
3/5/2007	49	18	31	51	27	24	0
Sunni	8	1	7	92	36	56	0
Shiite	72	30	42	28	22	6	0
Kurdish	73	18	55	27	19	8	0
11/22/2005	53	23	30	41	25	16	6
Local Militia in this Area
8/24/2007	24	11	13	68	26	43	8
Sunni	2	*	1	93	27	66	6
Shiite	32	12	20	67	30	36	1
Kurdish	41	28	13	24	13	11	35

* = less than 0.5 percent

Source: ABC NEWS/BBC/NHK POLL – Iraq: Where Things Stand, Embargoed For Release after 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2007, Iraqis’ Own Surge Assessment: Few See Security Gains, Question 14, pp. 22-23, http://abcnews.go.com/images/US/1043a1IraqWhereThingsStand.pdf

In September 2006, Iraqis were asked whether they considered the US military "a stabilizing force" or "provoking more conflict than it is preventing." Three to one, they chose the second option, with Shia taking this view more than four to one and Sunnis fifty to one (Table 7). Shia and Sunni Arabs both also expected inter-ethnic violence to be more likely to decrease rather than increase if the US withdrew (Table 8).⁸

Table 7: Iraqi Public Opinion, September 2006

Do you think the US military in Iraq is currently:

	Overall	Shia Arab	Sunni Arab	Kurd
A stabilizing force	21	17	2	56
Provoking more conflict than it is preventing	78	82	97	41

Source: WorldPublicOpinion.org and Program on International Policy Attitudes, "The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq," Sept. 27, 2006, p. 5, http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/sep06/Iraq_Sep06_rpt.pdf

Table 8: Iraqi Public Opinion, September 2006
If US-led forces withdraw from Iraq in the next six months, do you think the amount of inter-ethnic violence will increase a lot, increase a little, decrease a little, decrease a lot, or have no effect either way?
	Overall	Shia Arab	Sunni Arab	Kurd
Increase a lot	16	17	4	26
Increase a little	22