New Jersey Cubans Divided Equally Over Return of Elian

Dan Georgakas 

A public opinion poll released by the New Jersey City University in early February had some unexpected findings regarding the views of Hudson County residents about American-Cuban relations. In huge headlines  The Jersey Journal declared: Hudson to Elian: Go Home to Your Father and Motherland. A subheading stated: Poll also shows county’s desire to normalize relations with Cuba.

A full 50% of those polled thought Elian should be returned to Cuba. Only 27% thought he should stay in the US. 15% held no opinion and 7% had a third solution of some kind. Just as surprising  47% thought the US embargo should be lifted as against 26% that it should be kept in place and 26% with no strong opinion. In regard to authorized direct flights from NY to Cuba, the results were more predictable: 59% thought it was a good idea, only 17% were against, and 24% had no opinion.  Interestingly enough if the embargo was lifted only 38% said they would travel to Cuba for business or a vacation against 39% who said they would not and 22% did not know. A less formal call-in poll held by the newspaper a week earlier had 55% of the respondents in favor of Elian returning home.

What is startling about these findings is that Hudson County is home to the second largest Cuban-American community in America. That community is strongly anti-Castro and is politically powerful. Rudy Garcia, the mayor of Union City is a Cuban refugee, and Robert Menendez, the Congressman, is a second-generation Cuban American. Nonetheless the percentage breakdown for Cubans polled was virtually the same as for other ethnic groups.

Without making too much of a single poll, the views found by the pollsters indicate that attitudes toward Cuba are softening among New Jersey Cubans and that hard-liners have not won the support of their non-Cuban neighbors. Pertinent to that last point is that  a few weeks after the Elian poll,  a voter satisfaction poll found that the approval writing for Menendez had fallen from 75% to just over 50%. Many respondents felt that Menendez was spending too much time on the Gonzalez case. What is interesting in this regard is that his district has a very high percentage of immigrants, the majority of whom are Latinos but not Cubans. There was dissatisfaction for what was seen as favoritism for one ethnic group among people who have numerous immigration problems for which Congressional assistance is rare.

The irony is that Menendez, aside from Cuban issues, is a liberal, who so valued by the Minority Leader that earlier this year, he was persuaded not to run for the Senate in order to serve in the Democratic leadership. The liberalism of Menendez  also underscores  a difference between the Florida and New Jersey Cuban communities. Unlike the Florida Cubans who are conservative Republicans, the New Jersey Cubans are liberal Democrats. Rather than operating as an independent power block, the New Jersey Cubans are part of the legendary Hudson County Democratic machine. Menendez had been mayor of Union City before going to Congress.

The New Jersey poll also indicates that the organizations which purport to speak for Cuban Americans often mask the actual sentiments in the community on many issues and in the case of anti-Castroism on what tactics are most favored. What is just as important is what such polls say to politicians like Menendez. Taking forceful views on Cuba may not win as much support among Cuban Americans as believed and  it could cost votes in other communities. Menendez has responded to the poll by stating that non-Cubans did not understand the severity of repression in Cuba.

Finally, it is interesting that The Jersey Journal, the leading newspaper in the county, has taken a de facto position of favoring Elian going home and against continuing the present embargo on trade with Cuba. In addition to  front-page stories on the public opinion polls, numerous news stories present coverage of Cuba which is far more sophisticated and balanced than the stories in the newspapers across the Hudson.

Dan Georgakas teaches courses in international relations at New York University.