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Speculation on Occupation

By Noam Chomsky at Dec 06, 2004

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Will the effort succeed? I certainly have no basis for predicting, if only because I've been wrong about this all along. My guess was that the "war" would take a few days.  To my surprise, it lasted much longer, so much so that in the first few weeks the mainstream press was reporting serious setbacks.  After that rather surprising failure, I expected that this would be perhaps the easiest military occupation in history, and with even a minimum amount of sanity on the part of the civilian planners, it probably would have been.  To my great surprise, Rumsfeld-Cheney-Wolfowitz and the rest have created a huge catastrophe -- one of the worst in military history, so highly knowledgeable correspondents have pointed out (for one, Patrick Cockburn, who knows the region and its history well).  The Nazis had an easier time setting up client governments and domestic security forces in occupied Europe, the Russians surely did in their satellites.  In fact, it is hard to think of a counterpart, particularly when the circumstances were so favorable: a country that had been driven to total ruin, virtually no external support for resistance and no counter whatsoever to the occupying army that was, furthermore, by far the most powerful military force in history and with huge resources at its command, etc.  It took real genius to fail.  A few months after the invasion I happened to run into a high official of one of the leading international aid and relief agencies, with extensive experience in some of the most awful places in the world in the past several decades.  He had just returned briefly from efforts in Baghdad to reconstitute medical facilities.  I asked him why he thought it had become such a catastrophe, and his answer was that he had never seen such a combination of "arrogance, ignorance, and incompetence" -- not referring to the military but to the civilians in command in Washington.  A year later, that looks even more true.  Where it will go from here, it's very hard to say.  It seems to me hard to believe that with its utterly overwhelming resources of violence and no real counterforce, and its huge financial resources and ability to coerce allies into contributing, the Bush administration will nevertheless fail to achieve the minimal results that imperial powers quite typically do achieve without too much difficulty: a dependent client state that apologists will be able to call a "sovereign democracy." But I suppose one should not underestimate their arrogance, ignorance and incompetence. But quite apart from the great difficulty of prediction in such matters, my own record in this case has been pretty poor, so I don't say anything with confidence.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By K, Mr at Jan 08, 2005 10:21 AM
here's an additional link from another guy who says warcrimes are the only option but he uses 'dresden' as the main signifier. yeah leveling the city to save the citizens is a propaganda masterpiece. here's the link now remember the only thing i support in this piece is the 'soft' usage and renaming warcrimes as 'dresden' models. that german city was flattened in ww2. legitimizing this type of destruction in mental maps of western citizens is quite an accomplishment in todays society. the systems of indoctrination have obviously worked. here's the link: http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/12/28/news/edpfaff.html

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By K, Mr at Jan 03, 2005 04:58 AM
war crimes are the only option for the americans and then those eye scanners. they have no choice other than identification of everyone walking and talking in iraq then suppress everyone through police state autrocities then start doing a cambodia type deal whereas they just kill everyone who resists or between the ages of 15-65. lets face it this war in iraq is a nightmare with no hope of ending. iraq and iran killed a million. how many will america lose before they pull out cause i think the iraqi's are in it for the long haul. would have been cheaper to just give every citizen some money or something just bribe em but once again the yankees do everything on the 'cheap' including invasions and 'reconstruction' just like the civil war no? lackluster yankee know how. i dunno what to say other than not enough yankees are dead yet. no social change. yet. o wait better media indoctrination. that makes a big difference. technology has imprinted and controlled mannerisms better than previously imagined. deluding reality greater than any other opiate. rallying the masses means paying their rent while protesting for social change figure that one out and i'll sign up.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Phillipkim, Hairjello at Dec 29, 2004 04:51 AM
This is what Bush wants. He needs a reason for a continued military presence and a continued control of Iraq's economy. And if Bid Laden's terrorism gets bigger, all the better for him and his perpetual war on terrorism. Naomi Klein speculates that "the US plan to bring elections to Iraq seems designed to spark a civil war--the civil war needed to justify an ongoing presence for US troops no matter who wins the elections." http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20050110&s=klein

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Maahaadave, Gurudave at Dec 23, 2004 23:27 PM
William O. Beeman tells us about Michael Ledeen's influence. Writing for the Pacific News Service he says: “Ledeen's ideas are repeated daily by such figures as Richard Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz…He basically believes that violence in the service of the spread of democracy is America's manifest destiny. Consequently, he has become the philosophical legitimator of the American occupation of Iraq.” In fact, Ledeen's influence goes even further. The BBC, the Washington Post and Jim Lobe writing for the Asia Times report that Michael Ledeen is the only full-time international affairs analyst consulted by Karl Rove. Ledeen has regular conversations with Rove. The Washington Post said, “More than once, Ledeen has seen his ideas faxed to Rove, become official policy or rhetoric.”

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Maahaadave, Gurudave at Dec 23, 2004 23:27 PM
From [url=http://www.yuricareport.com/Dominionism/TheDespoilingOfAmerica.htm]How George W. Bush became the head of the new American Dominionist Church/State[/url] Today, in 2004, Michael Ledeen is a fellow at the conservative think tank, the American Enterprise Institute and according to William O. Beeman of the Pacific News Service, “Ledeen has become the driving philosophical force behind the neoconservative movement and the military actions it has spawned.” In 1999, Ledeen published his book, Machiavelli on Modern Leadership: Why Machiavelli's Iron Rules Are as Timely and Important Today as Five Centuries Ago. (Truman Talley Books, St. Martin's Griffin, N.Y. 1999.) “In order to achieve the most noble accomplishments, the leader may have to ‘enter into evil.' This is the chilling insight that has made Machiavelli so feared, admired, and challenging. It is why we are drawn to him still…” (p. 91)cont.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Maahaadave, Gurudave at Dec 23, 2004 23:06 PM
From [i]The Prince[/i] by Machiavelli, in the original Oxford University Press translation by Luigi Ricci. "When those states which have been acquired are accustomed to live at liberty under their own laws, there are three ways of holding them. The first is to despoil them; the second is to go and live there in person; the third is to allow them to live under their own laws, taking tribute of them, and creating within the country a government composed of a few who will keep it friendly to you. Because this government, being created by the prince, knows that it cannot exist without his friendship and protection, and will do all it can to keep them. What is more, a city used to liberty can be more easily held by means of its citizens than in any other way, if you wish to preserve it...in truth there is no sure method of holding them except by despoiling them. And whoever becomes the ruler of a free city and does not destroy it, can expect to be destroyed by it, for it can always find a motive for rebellion in the name of liberty and of its ancient usage..."

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Organum, Baby at Dec 16, 2004 06:25 AM
Ever since the war of crimea. Generals have found it hard to do their work. As long as a free inocent press roams around that is ;-) ( Heroic ideals change ) USarmy has problems with the geneva and press ( War is terror as well as death ) , nazisovjet style brutality can be imitated by artillery and airstrikes and policemethods like rubberbullets. However. The fear(respect)-factor will thus be reduced for obvious reasons. There are allso differences between arab classic law and the predominantly roman-traditional juridical system of international relations. It seems a trend, that journalists will introduce arabic words to show their "insight". Further reducing the debate. Bleak picture :-(

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Phillipkim, Hairjello at Dec 15, 2004 20:11 PM
I'm inclined to agree with gurudave that this Iraq mess was intentional and from the administration's perspective was not a mistake. In this post-9/11 war on terrorism the worse things get the better it is for them. There is no political fallout among the US population because the worse things get in Iraq the further it proves that terrorism is a problem that needs to be fought hard with all we have. These Right-wing leaders are not stupid, when it was so easy to actually create a democracy and have peace (as Jay Gardner was trying to do by planning fast elections and fast reconstruction and leaving the Iraq economy alone), they intentionally screwed it up. This could get as bad as Vietnam and they could still get away with it. What I fear the most is another big 9/11-type terrorist attack because then they would have license to do whatever they want, including a draft. The public'll eat it up.

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By Tolsen1, R4d20 at Dec 14, 2004 22:58 PM
But quite apart from the great difficulty of prediction in such matters, my own record...has been pretty poor, so I don't say anything with confidence." Noam - This is the smartest thing you have ever said

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Paymane, Paymun at Dec 14, 2004 07:48 AM
I agree with Zkauba. What the swedish guy doesn't get, is that, I think, Noam is pointing at a hopeful prospect. that is the Empire is failing, it can not carry its wishes as forcefully as before, anymore. the same assertion has been made by Banisadr the first president of Iran, 25 years ago. I think we are witnessing the dying of american empire. the left should do what more of what Noam has kept saying, that is to "organize and educate". the problem is, it seems chinease are more than happy to fill in. for what is worth, one empire must not be replaced by another.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Swedish, The at Dec 09, 2004 16:11 PM
Ninjafash, turks are not arabs,nonetheless, textbooks states that Kemal Atatûrk commenced his brutal way towards modernity in the 1920s. They have come far, but according to EU they have still quite a long way left to go. EU see Turkey, demands reforms from Turkey and slowly Turkey delivers. What I'm saying, is that your one-sightet focus on the role of US is not fair. Arab countries have a very long strech ahead. With or without the US.So had we.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Swedish, The at Dec 09, 2004 14:13 PM
Ok, let's say the coalition withdraws. Totalitarian regimes will not prevail in the long run. Arab countries is in the middle of transformation, from traditional societies towards some kind of modernity. The european equivalence stretches from the french revolution till the end of WWII. How many died? Does Robinsons historic guilt imply that Friday is forever free of guilt? Can Friday be a perpetrator? What is the "righteous" relationship between the two?

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Maahaadave, Gurudave at Dec 08, 2004 23:34 PM
When Uncle Sugar is paying billions of dollars to private companies in no bid contracts [because the point is to overpay their own cohorts], and the war keeps them from actually doing much, but they get paid just the same, it then pays to keep the war going, it's the goose laying golden eggs. The Nazi's and Soviets did not have that agenda. They were concerned with establishing political control as swiftly as possible. In Iraq they can take there sweet time. They have no outside element which is threatening them, giving them a sense of urgency. They are in military industrial complex heaven. They can just continue on the same way as now for as long as they feel the money will keep pouring in from the government. MILITARY SERVICES AND SUPPLIES ETC HAS BEEN PRIVATIZED, ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE THING IS A STING, A GIANT CON, SIPHONING OFF HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF GOVERNMENT CASH INTO PRIVATE HANDS. AND THATS NOT ALL FOLKS. THAT DOESN'T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT IRAQS NATURAL RESOURCES AND WEALTH WHICH ARE BEING SUCKED DRY WHILE NO ONE IS ABLE TO WATCH.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Maahaadave, Gurudave at Dec 08, 2004 23:24 PM
I have been saying for a while that the U.S military/intel establishment is not comprised of idiots. The reason that Iraq is the way it is, is because the political leadership wants it that way. As long as there is continual war there is continual exponential profit for the "Merchants of Death". That was the name given to the arms industry owners who provoked and prodded both sides in WW1 into conflict because they were supplying both sides. Look, why waste a golden opportunity to make billions of dollars from your friendly neighborhood Uncle Sugar ? The situation could have been totally different IF THAT WAS WHAT THEY WANTED. All it would have taken was paying everyone off, and then the exit of occupation forces, and then ruling Iraq covertly. This is something the U.S intelligence agencies have perfected over the last 60 years. They are not incompetent, they are experts at covert rule. They want chaos, they want war for as long as it is profitable, why not ? is their way of thinking. cont.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Murphy2, Ajbmurphy at Dec 08, 2004 15:12 PM
Perhaps it would also be helpful not only to focus on the US incompetence, arrogance etc and understand more about the Iraqi resistance. It is pretty clear that everyone seems to have underestimated the tenacity and effective organisation of the resistance. Many Iraqis perceive this as a war of liberation. It must surely be a priority for all concerned (apart from the pathological 'planners' in the Pentagon) that the only option is a troop withdrawl as soon as possible. A UN led multinational force of soldiers from Arab states could be the only possible way of winning over the people of Iraq.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Fomalhaut2003, Eridani at Dec 08, 2004 14:42 PM
The Soviets killed 4000 tops in conquering Hungary in 1956, and much less in Czechoslovakia. A better reference for Soviet brutality would be Afghanistan, where they lost. And of course Grozny = Fallujah = Guernica.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Chadrock314, Chadrock at Dec 08, 2004 12:27 PM
continued: You say Abu Graib can't be compared to Katyn or Oradour. HELLO! Have you heard of Fallujah? Where the "Americans are shooting anything that moves."[1] Were you unaware of the 100,000 death toll as a direct result of U.S. bombing?[2] I think you need to stop making excuses for the U.S. and face up the reality of this brutal, terroristic war we Americans are fighting. [1]http://cbsnews.cbs.com/stories/2004/11/13/iraq/main655523.shtml [2]The Lancet. "Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey."

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Chadrock314, Chadrock at Dec 08, 2004 12:26 PM
Comment by The swedish vicarage posted on Monday, December 06 at 02:47 PM No you did not understand him right! Chomsky wasn't arguing the U.S. forces aren't terroristic enough or that they were sissies. There wasn't as much resistance to the Soviet and Nazi occupation of Eastern Europe as there presently is in Iraq. This war has passionately inflamed the Islamic world against us and this is the result. Furthermore, he is not "trying to convince by misleading relativisms." Rather you are the relativist. You evidently don't believe torture is torture is torture. Tell that to a person who was beaten and raped by a "brave" "freedom fighting" U.S. soldier that what they experienced was not torture because what the Soviet and Nazi did was worse.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Dunne, Tom at Dec 06, 2004 23:54 PM
The failure in Iraq is magnified by the fact that everyone is watching, unlike many previous imperial adventures.This is not just because of outlets like this one, which provide facts as opposed to CNN-style propaganda. Bush and his friends promoted this occupation like it was to be America's greatest example of altruism,so everybody be sure to tune in and watch.The mainstream media, as usual, followed suit, eagerly anticipating war, as with that idiotic show on MSNBC before the invasion, "Countdown Iraq"."Countdown" meaning inevitable, regardless of public or world opinion. Now they have nothing to show for it but endless daily violence, and a President who says we're making "progress" without any regard to what's actually happening on any given day in Iraq.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Swedish, The at Dec 06, 2004 22:59 PM
I forgot: You always come in small fragments. You wouldn't ever dare to paint a big picture. Intellectual honesty? I guess I'm the only swede who read you and Chris Hitchens nowadays. Join us in Europe for a week or two. Post-van Gogh-Europe is not a pretty sight. Actually i think Dubeya, not knowing, is saving our continent from anti-arabic-semitism this very moment. The old lady is a very fragile creature. Sometimes she goes mad. And, I mean, really mad.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Swedish, The at Dec 06, 2004 22:47 PM
You are a cynical old goat. Nazis and stalinist got respect in a roman way. Through terror. I do not se it fit to compare the american failure in Iraq with "the succesful" strategies performed by totalitarian regimes during WWII. As always, you are trying to convince by misleading relativisms. Abu Ghraib is not in the same division as Katyn or Oradour. The american problem is rather delicate. According to your reasoning the coalition forces are not brutal enough. Did I understand you right? Do you really mean that they are sissies?

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Allen, Robert at Dec 06, 2004 20:24 PM
One should also not underestimate the tenacity and resourcefulness of those in Iraq who are unwilling to be ruled by US puppets while the resources of their land are plundered or the anger of those whose loved ones have been killed, maimed, or displaced by our "brave" soldiers.

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Re: Speculation on Occupation

By Sanderson, William at Dec 06, 2004 19:55 PM
America needs a new hobby, its not very good at this one. I can only guess that the military occupation will at the very least until the next elections elections and war go hand in hand. PS. on another subject. does anyone know how to get the Howard Zinn film on DVD or VHS?

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