Wars and Preludes to Wars

The latest from Afghanistan has another dozen

demonstrators killed on the fourth day of unrest since reports surfaced of

Korans being sent to incinerators for disposal.    That is the trouble with

occupation forces:  they are often insensitive to local culture, custom and

tradition.  The worst incidents occurred in the western province of Herat.  So

the religious insult has apparently alienated the whole country including the

Tajeks, Uzkeks and Hazaras, erstwhile allies.



Afghanistan has become an impossible situation.  If an agreement is

negotiated with the Taliban, there is no guarantee (because we have no

leverage) that they will abide by it after NATO forces leave.  Trying a

multilateral approach by incorporating regional powers is also a problem

because U.S. relations with both Pakistan and Iran are at the lowest ebb.



Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis' devastating critique of so-called success against the

Taliban, based on first-hand knowledge, has shown it to be simply a PR ploy

benefitting both the military brass and politicians.  So why not just declare

victory and come home.  The Taliban have never been interested in

attacking the U.S. and never will; that is, if the recent New Yorker article on

Mullah Omar (Jan 23, 2012) is to be believed.



In a series of fourteen bomb attacks in and around Baghdad a couple of days

ago, there were over 200 casualties.  And the horror stories emerging from

Libya are hardly comforting.  Both countries are devastated.  Small wonder a

majority of Syrians now support Assad although some are questioning the

statistics in this latest poll.  The "Friends of Syria" meeting in Morocco

refuse to negotiate without preconditions, following the blueprint of Libya.  

The shadowy leadership of these rebels remains shadowy.  Their fiercest

advocates prescribing democracy are absolute monarchies and sheikhdoms,

where democratic protest is put down brutally (as in Bahrain).  Al-Qaeda also

wants Assad gone.  That alone should be a portent, but this administration is

oblivious to the irony and the danger signals in all of this.



In the meantime, Iran barely tweaked the oil faucet this week and prices shot

up.  One wonders who this new boycott is really going to hurt.  A thought on

the nuclear issue there:  ever since both India and Pakistan acquired the

bomb, there has been no major war between them.  The threat of MAD

(mutually assured destruction) seems to work.